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How it works

SmartBid™ software runs on a laptop or desktop configuration and is easy to use. Experienced Gulf of Mexico bidders who use the software for the first time find the lease, well, platform, and bid data easy to view and analyze, the models powerful and the results intuitive and essential to their bid setting decisions.

The program uses empirical data from the most recent bid rounds in each region of the Gulf of Mexico. These data are utilized to construct two econometric models to estimate (1) the likelihood of a focal block of interest receiving a bid; and (2) the predicted bid amount for that focal block of interest. The process of determining the bid amount is fast and robust as the data are instantly available and the outputs are clearly displayed.

Both the likelihood and the bid amount models consider a number of critical variables related to block attributes and competitor activity on proximal blocks. The predictive power of these econometric models is very robust and results demonstrate that prior bidding behavior, economic environment, and other block attributes have a significant impact on the likelihood of a focal block receiving a bid and on the bid amount itself.

In parallel with the econometric analysis, SmartBid™ software utilizes a decision-science-based model that combines the probability of winning at alternative bid amounts and the firm’s asset value to recommend an optimal bid amount for the focal block of interest. The software provides users with empirical curves based on prior bidding activity in different regions of the Gulf of Mexico (Western, Central, and Eastern) listed by water depth and protraction map area or by proximal block selection. In addition, the user can select a subjective curve and enter a P5, P50, and P95 values that estimate the probability of a winning bid curve based on the user’s expert knowledge regarding competitor activity.

SmartBid capabilities

State-of-the-art mapping interface ClickHere

Lease ownership module Zoom2

Bid and Lease Data Display Zoom2

Competitive analysis by company Zoom2

Trend analysis Zoom4

Import and Analyze Key Subsurface Features Zoom4

Focal blocks of interest Zoom5

Proximal block selection Zoom6

Optimal bid analysis Zoom7